South-China Sea: Issues & Prospects

Introduction :-

The South China Sea is a marginal sea that is part of the Pacific Ocean, encompassing an area from the Singapore and Malacca Straits to the Strait of Taiwan.

A marginal sea is a partially enclosed sea adjacent to or widely opens to the open ocean at the surface, but bounded by submarine ridges on the sea floor.

The South China Sea has been responsible both for the parting as well as the bonding of several international actors. Various stakeholders are involved because of region’s strategic, economic and other important interests. Mainly China’s assertiveness are posing threat to ASEAN nations including India and Western involvement (USA) has gained momentum as part of their strategy to contain China.

Importance of South China Sea

Strategic and economic importance

 Stretching from Singapore and the Strait of Malacca choke point in the southwest to the Strait of Taiwan in the northeast, the South China Sea is one of the most  important energy trade routes in the world. Almost a third of global crude oil and over half of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through the South China Sea each year.

 The sea lane running between the Paracel and Spratly Islands is used by oil tankers moving from the Persian Gulf to Japan as well as by warships en route from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific.

 Security in the SCS is a concern both for regional countries such as China, Vietnam,Philippines, Malaysia, as well as the extra-regional countries, including India, due to their strategic and economic interests in this region. Any conflict in the SCS will pose a threat to regional and international Security.

 Territorial sovereignty, contention on energy, significance of the geographic location, threat to maritime security and overlapping maritime claims are at the core of the SCS dispute. Some scholars suggest that for the next 20 years, the SCS conflict will probably remain the “worst-case” threat to peace and security in the ASEAN region.


Other significant importance of the region

 The SCS, an integrated ecosystem, is one of the richest seas in the world in terms of marine flora and fauna, coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass beds, fish and plants. The  sea accounts for approximately 10 per cent of the annual global fisheries catchment, making it extremely viable for the fishing industries of nearby countries.
Furthermore, value-added production (canning, filleting, fresh, frozen and chilled processing) has translated into valuable foreign exchange earnings and job opportunities for countries in the region.

 Finally, large quantities of coal from Australia and Indonesia, the world’s two largest coal exporters, pass through the South China Sea to markets around the world, especially to China, Japan, and India.

India’s interests in South China Sea

 At the outset it is important to state that India has a great stake in the South China Sea. Our entire trade with China, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and 55% of trade with US passes through the South China Sea.
 In addition India is also interested in oil and natural gas available in the region.
 India has signed an agreement with Vietnam to acquire two more oil and gas blocks for exploration besides deciding to step up cooperation in key areas of defense, security, trade and counter-terrorism.

Imperatives for India

 There are compelling reasons for India to protect the sea lanes in the SCS. First, it considers an unimpeded Right of passage essential for peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region.
 Second, India favors peaceful resolution of the dispute, in accordance with international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, as opposed to the use of threat in resolving competing claims.
 Access to resources such as oil, natural gas, food and minerals is now high on the agenda of global issues to be faced in the years ahead. India’s increasing involvement in the SCS region illustrates the relationship between its strategy and the need for resources, and for the routes and logistical systems necessary for their transportation.
 Undoubtedly, the SCS is a critical corridor between the Pacific and Indian Ocean for commercial and naval shipping. In view of the emerging challenges in the region, India is strengthening its engagement with the ASEAN region steadily.
 India recognizes the strategic importance of Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean for defence of the Indian peninsula. India’s prosperity is dependent, almost exclusively, on sea trade.
 Land routes from the Indian subcontinent are few and provide little facility for commerce. Safeguarding the sea lanes is therefore indispensable for India’s development as its future is dependent on the freedom of the vast water surface. A secure and safe sea lane is important for India’s industrial development, commercial growth and a stable political structure.

Challenges ahead for India

 There are some apprehensions in India and other stakeholders about China’s ambitions in the SCS.
 Chinese assertiveness and her tendency to unilaterally seek to change the status quo have the potential to impinge upon others commercial and strategic interests in the SCS. Though military conflict over freedom of navigation and access to maritime resources is neither necessary nor inevitable, it is natural for India and other players to address China’s “threat perception” and to promote their national interest.
 India has a legitimate interest in safeguarding the sea lanes and access to maritime resources. With a considerable expansion of India’s engagement with the SCS’ littoral states, especially with Vietnam in oil and gas explorations and defense exercises-India appears to be emerging as an indispensable element in the strategic discourse of this region. This may irk China
 India could be a valuable security partner for several nations in the Asia-Pacific region, provided it sustains a high economic growth rate and nurtures the framework of partnership that it has enunciated in the region.

Initiatives by different nations

 US pivot to Asia policy- targeted against China and more importantly to establish a prosperous relation with ASEAN nations. Again the driver is the rich resources of the region.
 India’s active involvement in this region- ASEAN look towards India as the only nation in South Asia who can challenge the might of China.
 China’s assertive presence in the region along with dispute with Japan over East China Sea.
 Military expansion of China- Fully trying to grow its clout with capabilities of Blue Water Navy and other state of art military advancements.
 Vietnam and Philippines ordered more submarines from other nations- Especial treatment by US and support in defense.
 USA and Philippines conducted naval exercises
 Japan and Vietnam increased their collaboration- to counter China
 Close relations between India and Japan is seen as to counter China. Japan feels that India will support its interest in East China Sea dispute.
 Chinese cabinet approved the establishment of prefectural level city of Sansha to administer the Paracel (Xisha) and Spratly (Nansha)island groups- both of these and their surrounding waters are under dispute in South China Sea.
 China plans to set up a military command in the Sansha islands.
 Recently China announced Air Defense Identification Zone [ADIZ] over disputed areas in East China Sea. According to critics, it may extend ADIZ over south china sea when demand arises

Solutions:-

 China wants the dispute to be resolved by bilateral negotiations with concerned nations but the reality is that small power nations like Vietnam, Philippines cannot force big power like China. But other nations want international mediation.
 Recently India and Vietnam said that the freedom of navigation in the East Sea/South China Sea should not be impeded. They called on all parties concerned to exercise restraint, avoid threat or use of force and resolve disputes through peaceful means.
 The two sides called for collective commitment of the parties concerned to abide by and implement the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and to work towards the adoption of a Code of Conduct on the basis of consensus.

Impact on changing dynamics of geopolitical relations:

 US pivot to Asia policy to balance China and have economic gains by sidelining to ASEAN countries
 India-Japan proximity
 ASEAN looking at India to counter China- India-ASEAN relations
 Impact on India-China relations